The stock market was a stinker last week. There’s no other way to put it. Stocks were the entire show, and for various reasons that we’ll get into in a minute, they just didn’t perform.
Although there wasn’t much to look at from an economic data standpoint, a few things did manage to cross the wire. Let’s touch on those first.
The nation’s trade deficit rose by $2.7 billion in the month of December to come in at $53.1 billion. A rise in exports wasn’t enough to make up for a larger rise in imports.
First, the import side. These were up 2.5% to $256.5 billion. Imports of goods were up 2.9% to $210 million, while $45.7 billion worth of services were imported, a 0.6% increase. Imports of consumer goods were up 6.1% to $55.5 billion. Consumers were fully taking advantage of that last-minute holiday shopping.
On the export side, goods exports were up 2.5% to $137.5 billion, with the growth of services up 0.2% to $65.9 billion. Capital goods exports helped this, at $47.4 billion.
Petroleum imports were down to $15.8 billion, while exports held at $12.5 billion for a $3.3 billion deficit.
MBA Mortgage Applications
Applications were flat on the purchase side and up 1.0% on the refinance side. People seem to have gotten the message that rates are going up because they’re applying with urgency. The average rate on a 30-year fixed conforming mortgage was up nine basis points to 4.50% in this data.
Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 221,000 last week. This put the four-week average of initial claims down 10,000 to 224,500.
Continuing claims were down 33,000 to 1.923 million last week, while the four-week average fell 12,000 to 1.934 million.
Rates were up across the board last week. Rates are still pretty low, so if you see one you like, feel free to lock it.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was up 10 basis points to 4.32% with 0.6 point in fees. Last year at this time, the rate was 4.17%.
Looking at shorter terms, the 15-year fixed was up nine basis points to 3.77% with 0.5 points. The rate was 3.39% at the same time a year ago.
The 5-year treasury-index hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate with 0.4 point was up for basis points to 3.57%. Last year, the average rate was 3.21%.
After spending much of the last year climbing to ever higher heights, the stock market has started to come back down to Earth. Rising interest rates have brought the market toward correction territory as the markets had their worst week in two years, despite a bounce-back on Friday.
In the last week, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen 5.21% to 24,190.90, despite being up 330.44 points on Friday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 38.55 points to finish at 2,619.55. It was still down 5.16% weekly. Finally, the Nasdaq closed at 6,874.49. It was down 5.06% on the week, despite finishing at 97.33 points Friday.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday, February 13
Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans, the nation’s second-largest retail mortgage lender, releases data every month comparing what people think their homes are worth to appraisals. Similar opinions of value often make for smoother purchase and refinance transactions.
Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI) (10:00 a.m. ET) – Quicken Loans also releases data on home values, on both the national and regional levels. Homeowners can gain a perception of whether values are increasing or decreasing and get a better idea of where they stand in terms of equity.
Wednesday, February 14
It’s Valentine’s Day, and this is your minor PSA not to forget. Have a good one!
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The consumer price index measures changes based on the price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Retail Sales (8:30 a.m. ET) – Retail sales measure total receipts from stores selling merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are measured by retail and food service stores. Data is collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Thursday, February 15
Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to report the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 a.m. ET) – The Producer Price Index measures the average change over time in prices received by domestic producers for the sale of goods and services.
Industrial Production (9:15 a.m. ET) – The Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production – and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates – covers manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities.
Housing Market Index (10:00 a.m. ET) – The National Association of Home Builders produces a housing market index based on a survey where respondents from the organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions. The index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes, including present sales of new homes, sales of new homes expected in the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes.
Friday, February 16
Housing Starts (8:30 a.m. ET) – A housing start is registered when the construction of a new residential building begins. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.
Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET) – The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.
There’s a lot going on this week after a light week last week. We’ll have it all covered for you in Market Update next week.
If mortgage rates and the movement of the stock market don’t get you pumped up in the morning, we get it. If you subscribe to the Zing Blog below, we have plenty of other home, money and life content to share with you. The Olympics are going on, and there are plenty of new terms to understand. We’re kind of on a translation kick lately after our Super Bowl commercial. Here’s a guide to understanding various Olympic sports terms. Have a great week!
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