Durable Goods Orders: Declines in orders for airplanes helped push down new orders in April as they fell 0.5%. The good news is that without transportation, orders were up by 0.5%. New orders for non-defense-related capital goods were up 1.0% in April. Meanwhile, civilian aircraft orders were down 3.6% after being up 54.9% in March. Motor vehicle orders were up 0.3%, while transportation fell 2.5% overall. There was a 3.1% increase in orders for machinery. Primary and fabricated metals rose 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively. There was a 3.6% drop in orders for computers and electronics.
FHFA House Price Index: This index showed a lower-than-expected 0.3% gain in home prices in March. This is up 5.2% year over year. Despite the minimal gains, prices increased in seven of nine surveyed regions. The biggest gains were in the East North Central and East South Central regions. Meanwhile, the West South Central and New England regions saw their prices decline. The Mountain region has experienced the biggest year-on-year gains at 7.2%. The West North Central region brings up the rear with a 3.2% yearly increase.
S&P Case-Shiller HPI: The 20-city index showed that home prices were up 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis month to month in March. Not accounting for seasonal factors, prices were up 0.9% and 5.0% year on year. Detroit showed the biggest pricing gains with prices up 2.6% for the month. Prices were also up 1.8% in Minneapolis. The highest priced cities were on the West Coast and in Florida.
New Home Sales: Sales of new homes were up 6.8% in April, pushing the annual rate to 517,000. The strength of this increase was in the South, which saw a 5.8% gain. Despite a slight rise in supply to 205,000 available homes, sales pushed the supply of new homes in the market down to 4.8 months from 5.1 months. Meanwhile, there was a 4.1% monthly rise in the median price of a new home to $297,300. This is up 8.3% from this time last year.
Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence this month was up just over one point from a revised level of 94.3 in April, finishing at 95.4. More people thought that jobs were hard to get, coming in at 27.3% compared to 25.9% in April. However, the six-month outlook on the job market is more favorable. Income expectations were slightly up. More people planned to buy cars, homes and appliances as well.
MBA Mortgage Applications: Mortgage applications were down 1.6% this week. Purchases pushed 1.0% higher. Higher rates drove refinances down 4.0%, though. The average conforming 30-year fixed rate was up 3 basis points to 4.07%.
Jobless Claims: Initial claims were up 7,000 this week to 282,000. The four-week average of initial claims rose 5,000 to 271,500. This was 10,000 lower than the same time a month ago. Continuing claims for the week of May 16 were up 11,000 to 2.222 million. However, the four-week average fell 9,000, coming in at 2.221 million, down 50,000 from a month ago.
Pending Home Sales Index: Pending home sales were up 3.4% in the month of April to come in at 112.4. All four regions were up, with particular gains in the Northeast and Midwest. Pending sales were up 14.0% from this time last year.
GDP: A revision for first-quarter GDP numbers came out Friday, and although the results were about as expected, they weren’t good. The revision showed GDP was down 0.7%. This indicates the U.S. economy has actually shrunk on a quarterly basis. Net exports were down as imports rose 5.6%. Inventory growth was also lower. Final sales fell 1.1%. The good news is that residential fixed investment was up to 5.0% of overall GDP. Also, business spending was still in the red, but not as badly. It has only decreased 2.8% compared to an initial estimate of 3.4%. Another positive for consumers is a 0.1% decrease in prices.
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment was up 2.1 points in its final May reading to 90.7. Still, the current conditions component was sitting at 100.8, down more than 6 points from April. The expectations metric was down from 88.8 in April to 84.2 in May. Gas prices have also risen 5.0% from April, causing inflation expectations to rise with them. Both 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations were up 0.2% to 2.8%.
Mortgage rates mostly pushed higher again this week, reaching 2015 highs.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) averaged 3.87% with an average 0.6 point for the week ending May 28, 2015, up from last week when they averaged 3.84%. A year ago at this time, 30-year FRMs averaged 4.12%.
15-year FRMs this week averaged 3.11% with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when they averaged 3.05%. A year ago at this time, 15-year FRMs averaged 3.21%.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 2.90% this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when they averaged 2.88%. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.96%.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 2.50% this week with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when they averaged 2.51%. At this time last year, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.41%.
A combination of U.S. data and concerns in the European markets over Greece weighed on the New York Stock Exchange Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18,010.68 after falling 115.44 points Friday. It was down 1.21% for the week. The S&P 500 was down 13.40 points to finish at 2,107.39, a loss of 0.88% week over week. The NASDAQ was down 0.38% this week after falling 27.95 points Friday to 5,070.03.
The Week Ahead
Monday, June 1
Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 a.m.) – This measures all possible income sources as well as expenditures of the public.
ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 a.m.) – This index measures the general direction of manufacturing within the U.S. The qualitative survey of purchasing managers looks at production, new orders, order backlogs, inventories and supplier deliveries, among other factors.
Wednesday, June 3
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
International Trade (8:30 a.m. ET) – International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It’s available by export, import and trade balance for six principal end-use commodity categories and for more than 100 principal Standard International Trade Classification system commodity groupings.
Thursday, June 4
Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Employment Situation (8:30 a.m. ET) – The employment situation report measures unemployment in the labor force as well as the sentiments of workers about the job market.
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