Quicken Loans HPPI/HVI: Homeowner opinions were 1.15% higher than appraiser estimates of their property value, widening the gap from 0.69% last month. This marks the first time in 22 months that homeowner opinions were more than 1% higher than those of appraisers. Despite this, appraiser opinions remain higher than homeowner estimates in the majority of areas surveyed. Meanwhile, home values rose 0.24% in May. Losses of 0.09% and 0.19% in the West and Midwest were offset by increases in value of 0.62% and 0.12% in the South and Northeast. Home values are up 4.64% from this time last year.
MBA Mortgage Applications: Applications were up 8.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis this week. This occurred despite the average rate for a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage climbing 15 basis points to 4.17%, its highest level since November. Consumers appear to be betting that rates will rise even higher in the near future. Purchase volume was up 10%, while refinances increased by 7% last week.
Jobless Claims: Initial claims were up a very slight 2,000 last week to 279,000. The four-week average was up 3,750 to 278,750. Continuing claims pushed higher last week, raising 61,000 to 2.265 million. The four-week average was up 11,000 at 2.227 million.
Retail Sales: Sales showed strong gains in May, rising 1.2%, up a full percentage point from April’s revised numbers. There were gains in almost every component. Automobile sales were up 2.0%, accounting for 0.2% of the retail sales total for the month. Gasoline sales were pushed up by higher prices. Building materials and garden equipment stores saw a 2.1% increase in sales. There was a 1.5% increase in sales of clothing and accessories and a 1.4% increase for non-store retailers. Department stores rebounded from a dismal 2.9% loss in April with a 0.8% gain. The lone shrinking sales number came from health and personal care sales, down 0.3%.
Producer Price Index (PPI): Producer prices were up 0.5% in May. Prices are still down 1.1% for the year. Excluding food and energy, prices were only up 0.1%. Food was up 0.8% and energy was at 5.9%. Gasoline saw a 17.0% gain and home heating oil was up 11.5%.
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment declined 3.9 points in the first half of June, coming in at 94.6. Current conditions were up 6.0 points to 106.8. The expectations component was up 2.6 points to 86.8. Both 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations were down one tenth to 2.7%.
Mortgage rates were mostly up this week while short-term adjustable rates came down.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) averaged 4.04% with an average 0.6 point for the week ending June 11, 2015, up from last week when they averaged 3.87%. A year ago at this time, 30-year FRMs averaged 4.20%.
15-year FRMs this week averaged 3.25% with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when they averaged 3.08%. A year ago at this time, 15-year FRMs averaged 3.31%.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 3.01% this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when they averaged 2.96%. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.05%.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 2.53% this week with an average 0.2 point, down from last week when they averaged 2.59%. At this time last year, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.40%.
It’s all Greek to U.S. stock traders. The volatile situation in that country pushed U.S. stocks lower on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140.53 points on Friday to 17,898.84, still managing a weekly gain of 0.28%. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.06% gain for the week following a 14.75 point loss to close the week at 2,094.11. The NASDAQ was down 31 points to 5,051.10, down 0.34% for the week.
The Week Ahead
Monday, June 15
Industrial Production (9:15 a.m. ET) – The Federal Reserve’s monthly index of industrial production and the related capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates covers manufacturing, mining and electric and gas utilities.
Housing Market Index (10:00 a.m. ET) – The National Association of Home Builders produces a housing market index based on a survey in which respondents from this organization are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions. The Housing Market Index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes, including present sales of new homes, sales of new homes expected in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes.
Tuesday, June 16
Housing Starts (8:30 a.m. ET) – A housing start is registered when the construction of a new residential building begins. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.
Wednesday, June 17
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
Thursday, June 18
Consumer Price Index (8:30 a.m. ET) – The consumer price index measures changes based on the price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers.
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