Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales spiked 5.1% in May to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million. This is up 9.2% year on year. Prices for existing homes were also up 7.9% to a median price of $228,700. Sales of single-family homes were up 5.6% to 4.73 million, a 9.7% gain from this time last year. Meanwhile, condo sales were up 1.6% to 620,000. This represents a 5.1% year-over-year gain. Supply was down one tenth of a point in May, coming in at 5.1 months.
Durable Goods Orders: New orders for durable goods fell 1.8% in May. This number is distorted somewhat by volatility in aircraft orders, which dropped by 49% from April. That being said, a revision in the numbers for April showed that new orders were down 1.5% versus the 0.5% drop previously reported. Excluding transportation, there’s a gain of 0.5%. However, the revision monster showed that April’s 0.5% gain in this metric was actually a 0.3% fall. On a more upbeat note, machinery, as well as fabricated and primary metals, showed gains. Electrical equipment was down and motor vehicle orders were flat.
FHFA House Price Index: Home prices were up 0.3% for the month of April. This puts them up 5.3% for the year. The West North Central region had the biggest gain at 1.4% for the month. Meanwhile, the East North Central region fell 0.8%. The smallest price growth occurred in the mid-Atlantic, with prices rising just 2.3%. Meanwhile, the Pacific region is leading the way, up 7.5%.
New Home Sales: New home sales were up 2.2% to 546,000 in May, beating forecast estimates. April numbers were also revised 27,000 sales higher to come in at 534,000, an 8.1% gain from March. Supply of new homes in the market slipped to 4.5 months. Meanwhile, the average sales price dropped 2.9% to $282,800. Sales were up 13.1% in the West. Sales also pushed higher in the Northeast, but were down 4.3% in the South.
MBA Mortgage Applications: Mortgage applications rose 1.6% last week. The purchase index was up 1.0% and refinances rose 2.0%. Mortgage rates were down last week as the average rate for a conforming balance fell three basis points to 4.19%.
GDP: The second revision for U.S. GDP in the first quarter of this year came in as expected with a 0.2% decline. Exports were down and imports were up, reflecting the global impact of a strong U.S. dollar. Also not helping was the decline in business spending and a slowdown in consumer spending. Spending on services was a positive, however. Residential investment was also up. Inventories were also increased, although this was partly because inclement weather and a port strike on the West Coast made it hard to move product. Prices were flat for the quarter.
Jobless Claims: Initial claims were up 3,000 last week but are still at extremely low levels, coming in at 271,000. The four-week average is down 3,250 to 273,750, lower than this time a month ago. Meanwhile, continuing claims are up 22,000 to 2.247 million. This did push the four-week average up 5,000 to 2.237 million.
Personal Income and Outlays: Personal incomes were up 0.5% in May. This helps support a 0.9% uptick in consumer spending including major spending on motor vehicles and retail goods. Wages and salaries were both up 0.5%. Spending on nondurable goods was also up as gas prices pushed higher. Meanwhile, prices were up 0.3% and 0.1% in the core. This puts prices for core goods and services up to 1.2% for the year and up 0.2% annually overall.
Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment survey of June showed a 1.5 point increase to 96.1, beating all analyst expectations. Optimism in the job market is at 97.8, which is a 12-year high and up 11 points from the midmonth reading. The current conditions reading was also up over two points from midmonth to 109.8. Inflation expectations for the next year are down one tenth to 2.7%. Five-year expectations are down two tenths at 2.6%.
The 30-year fixed rate was up ever so slightly. Everything else was down a smidge.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) averaged 4.02% with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 25, 2015, up from last week when they averaged 4.00%. A year ago at this time, 30-year FRMs averaged 4.14%.
15-year FRMs this week averaged 3.21% with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when they averaged 3.23%. A year ago at this time, 15-year FRMs averaged 3.22%.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 2.98% this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when they averaged 3.00%. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.98%.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 2.50% this week with an average 0.3 point, down from last week when they averaged 2.53%. At this time last year, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.40%.
There hasn’t been this much talk about Greece since they were inventing democracy. The country’s debt talks are again holding the markets in limbo as stocks closed down for the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 56.66 points Friday, closing at 17,947.02. This was down 0.38% for the week. The S&P 500 was down 0.70 points closing at 2,101.61, losing about 0.40% for the week. The NASDAQ was down 31.6 points to end the week at 5,080.51, losing 0.72% for the week.
The Week Ahead
Monday, June 29
Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 a.m. ET) – The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. Specifically, it’s a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales.
Tuesday, June 30
S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9:00 a.m. ET) – The S&P Case-Shiller home pricing index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S.
Consumer Confidence (10:00 a.m. ET) – The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumer perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations when considering business conditions, employment and income.
Wednesday, July 1
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 a.m.) – This index measures the general direction of manufacturing within the U.S. The qualitative survey of purchasing managers looks at production, new orders, order backlogs, inventories and supplier deliveries, among other factors.
Thursday, July 2
Employment Situation (8:30 a.m. ET) – The employment situation report measures unemployment in the labor force as well as the sentiments of workers about the job market.
Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Friday, July 3
The markets are closed. Happy Independence Day!
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