I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Hopefully, you got to spend a lot of time with family and friends, and maybe your favorite sports team even won. If they came up on the losing end, there’s always next year.
Before everyone pigged out on turkey and yelled at the TV, there was quite a bit packed into a short week from an economic data standpoint. Let’s dive in like it’s the last helping of sweet potatoes.
Existing Home Sales: Existing home sales were up 2.0% to an annualized rate of 5.600 million. This beat estimates for a decrease of 70,000 in the number of home sales in the month of October. The October sales rate is the highest since February 2007 and moves the annual rate of existing sales all the way from 0.6% to 5.9%. Single-family home sales were up 2.3% to 4.900 million. Condo sales were flat at 610,000. The sales spike occurred despite a 6.0% increase in prices to $232,200. Sales were up across the country.
MBA Mortgage Applications: Applications were up 5.5% last week on the strength of a 19.0% increase in purchase applications. Refinance applications continue to fall with rising rates, down 3.0%. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 21 basis points to 4.16%.
Durable Goods Orders: New orders for durable goods were up 4.8% in October. This gain was much greater than what was expected and happening largely on the strength of a 12.0% gain in transportation orders. In addition, September numbers were revised upward. Nondefense aircraft orders were up 94.1%, which helped the transportation numbers. Offsetting this was a 0.6% downturn in car and truck sales. However, core capital goods were up 0.4% in a good sign. That number is still down 4.3% on the year.
Jobless Claims: New claims were up 18,000 to 251,000. That matches the four-week average, which is down 2,000 from last week. Continuing claims were up 60,000 to 2.043 million. This put the four-week moving average up just slightly to 2.025 million.
FHFA House Price Index: Prices were up 0.6% in September across the nation. This puts the annual rate of increase up 6.1%. Eight of the nine measured regions posted increases with only the Northeast down 0.2%. The Pacific had the biggest jump, up 1.3%.
New Home Sales: As opposed to sales of existing homes, builders saw new home sales decline 30,000 in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000. Sales were only up in the West, where they rose 8.8%. The nation’s three other regions saw decreases ranging from 3.0% in the South to 13.7% in the Midwest. There was more supply in the market as it went up to 5.2 months from 5.0 months.
Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment numbers out of the University of Michigan were up 2.2 points to 93.8. Economists had expected this number to be flat, so it surprised to the upside. The current conditions portion of this metric was up to 107.3 from 105.9, where it stood after the preliminary reading for the month of November. The expectations index was also up 8.4 points to 85.2 for the month.
International Trade in Goods: The United States trade deficit in goods increased by $5.5 billion to $62.0 billion in September. Exports were down 2.7%, while imports were up 1.1% on the month. There was an 11.8% decrease in the amount of food and beverage exported. Industrial supply exports were also down 4.1%. Finally, consumer goods were down 5.9%. We took in a lot more than we shipped off to the world. Imports were up 1.9% in the capital goods category and consumer goods were up 3.7%.
Rates continue to move higher, although when this is compared to historical data, they still remain on the low side. If you haven’t locked your rate, now is a good time to do it.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) averaged 4.03% with an average 0.5 point for the week ending Nov. 24, 2016, up from last week when they averaged 3.94%. A year ago at this time, 30-year FRMs averaged 3.95%.
15-year FRMs this week averaged 3.25% with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when they averaged 3.14%. A year ago at this time, 15-year FRMs averaged 3.18%.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 3.12% this week with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when they averaged 3.07%. A year ago, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.01%.
The stock market continued the post-election upswing they’ve been riding the past few weeks. Stocks posted their third consecutive week of gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 68.96 points to close at 19,152.14 Friday. This was a five-day increase of 1.51%. The S&P 500 was up 1.44% on the week after finishing at 2,213.35 points, up 8.63 points on the day. The NASDAQ closed at 5,398.92, which was up 18.24 points on the day and 1.45% for the week
The Week Ahead
Tuesday, November 29
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (8:30 a.m. ET) – This measures the monetary value of all final goods and services produced within the U.S. This report is released on a quarterly basis.
S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9:00 a.m. ET) – The S&P Case-Shiller Home Pricing Index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S.
Consumer Confidence (10:00 a.m. ET) – The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumer perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations when considering business conditions, employment and income.
Wednesday, November 30
MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 a.m. ET) – The mortgage applications index measures applications to mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.
Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 a.m. ET) – This measures all possible income sources as well as public expenditures.
Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 a.m. ET) – The National Association of Realtors developed the Pending Home Sales Index as a leading indicator of housing activity. Specifically, it’s a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales.
Thursday, December 1
Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET) – New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing trend suggests a deteriorating labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 a.m.) – This index measures the general direction of manufacturing within the U.S. The qualitative survey of purchasing managers looks at production, new orders, order backlogs, inventories and supplier deliveries, among other factors.
Friday, December 2
Employment Situation (8:30 a.m. ET) – The employment situation report measures unemployment in the labor force as well as the sentiments of workers about the job market.
There’s a lot going on next week. If the economic data provided here isn’t enough to offset the excess tryptophan in your system, we’ve got plenty of home, money and lifestyle content for you to feast your eyes on while your mouth enjoys that last slice of cheesecake. Subscribe to the Zing Blog below. Have a good week!
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