The sun may finally be peeking out from the clouds to shine on the housing market! That’s what several industry experts are saying about the outlook for 2012. Read the article on Reuters.com.
“Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.com, a real estate search and research website, says he sees rising rents, a humble recovery in housing prices and even some unexpected ‘hot’ spots where he thinks price increases will exceed the average this year.” These hot spots include cities such as Boston, San Jose, Austin, Houston and Rochester, New York.
The predicted growth, however slow, could possibly be disrupted by financial events in the coming year. If Europe doesn’t get its act together, the world could see a freeze in lending.
That said, having any positive talk surrounding the housing market is rare, indeed. I’m adding my optimism to the pot and look forward to this year being the beginning of the turnaround.
According to Kolko, in 2012, as a sign of economic strengthening, “Mortgage rates should rise a bit, too. Higher rates for a reason we can cheer.”
Higher rates in 2012? Thankfully, not yet. Since mortgage rates are still at record lows, call a Home Loan Expert today at (800) 251-9080.
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Okay, so who exactly, are these so-called “experts”
(“several industry experts are saying…”)
Besides the always uninformative and typically incorrect Kolko, who?
P l e a s e. . .Don’t tell me you sourced the nar or the nahb…
Two of the most useless, worthless agencies in real estate.
They are nothing more than Lobbying and Propaganda producing entities,
who solely rely upon the ‘Sales’ of real estate in order to exist.
Now, allow me to give you a more clearer and realist outlook for U.S. Housing in 2012.
Currently there are approximately anywhere from a TOTAL of 5 to 7 Million residential dwellings
on the available market. This does not include shadow inventory that has not yet been disclosed.
(It is somewhat possible, that there may in fct be somewhere near a total of 9 Million dwellings)
Banks are not disclosing ALL of their distressed inventories. But it is safe to state that the 5-7m
units is correct.
Mean and Median prices keep Falling as a result of rising inventories and stagnant sales.
Which on one hand is good for Affordability, if there were sufficient buyers, but it is a negative
in terms of value-stabilization for existing and new homes.
60-Day + loan delinquencies are Rising.
Regarding FHA loans, Serious delinquency have not improved for the previous eight months.
90-Day+ delinquencies increased 3% from November to December.
Current number of delinquent properties 90-Day + 1,792,000.
The FHA delinquency rate is increasing, with 17.42% of all FHA loans delinquent 30-days or more as of November 2011. FHA now has over $1 trillion in insured loans outstanding.
Now on to Labor.
The ‘headline’ U3 rate is over 11%
The U6 (underemployment/unemployment) rate is over 22%
The Mean duration of Long-term Unemployment is at 41 weeks (an all-time high)
Unemployment is actually worsening, not improving as the liberal-media suggests.
More and more persons are expiring their EUC, following 99 weeks of UE benefits.
These expired beneficiaries will no longer be ‘counted’ as unemployed, but they are
and STILL- Unemployed.
U.S. wages are flat.
“Real” retail Sales are flat.
Many large retailers are in danger of going under in 2012 (Kmart/Sears, Best Buy, Hostess…)
Household/Food Commodity Inflation is still up over 25% from 2010/2011.
Crude (up 9%) and gasoline (up 8%) are still rising.
(eating away at discretionary income, thus further reducing Purchasing Power)
The Eurozone is on the brink of collapse. The EU is a recession.
MBS’s will suffer. Inflation rates will suffer. General lending conditions will deteriorate even further.
As the 90-Day + loans become 120, 150, etc. they will inevitably become Foreclosures.
More Distressed Inventory that will be glutting the market. Prices will continue to drop.
As long as Purchasing Power is diminished and decimated, due to the depressed labor
market,the housing market is going nowhere but down in 2012 and beyond.
Again, I say to all the so-called ‘experts’ Stop snorting the Hopium. Stop making up data.
Stop Lying. Stop it. Just stop it. Accept the harsh realities of an (unfortunate) globalized world.
The globalists got their wish and have helped to plummet the worlds wealth and prosperity.
The U.S. housing depression and its associated serious issues are tied to a MUCH larger financial and economic scale and force than most real estate and bankers could even fathom,
let alone comprehend.