So, I was thinking about opening up with some one-liner about how 2012 means a new year, and hopefully progress in Europe will lead to a stronger global economy.
But then I figured that the statute of limitation for references to a new year has expired, so I’ll just get right into it.
Europe is in a debt crisis. It has been well documented over the past year that things aren’t looking good financially for the eurozone, and top economic officials are having a hard time cleaning up the mess that they are in.
Where does Europe stand right now?
That’s complicated. You could say that things are looking up because the new governments of Italy and Spain are really pushing hard to make things right. On the other side, you can say things aren’t getting better because Greece remains in a shambles.
It is more or less understood that a Greek default is inevitable. Right now, the proposed restricting program is aiming to knock Greece’s debt down to 120 percent of its economic output by 2020 from its current 160 percent.
That’s a pretty big chunk of change to knock off in eight years, and even if they were able to pull that off, Greece’s debt burden will still be classified as “very high” and its credit rating will remain “very low.”
Greece stands in limbo right now. Some view it as a fulcrum (yeah, I dropped the word fulcrum on you. Thank you, 7th grade science class!) for Europe and maybe even the world economy: whichever way Greek goes, it might lead to a domino effect on the global economy.
As it stands, if Greece misses out on its 14.5 billion euro bond redemption in March without more bailout money, it would lead to what’s called a “disorderly default,” which could lead to a wicked domino effect across the global economy.
If Greek defaults on its debt, who has to pick up the tab? The entire eurozone. Who gets impacted when Europe is in trouble financially? That answer is simple: the global economy.
We all know how the European debt crisis impacts the United States economy. If a European newspaper publishes a headline that has the slightest hint of pessimism, you can almost bet on stocks taking a nosedive the next day. It’s happened far too many times over the past few months for it not to be a safe bet.
Europe has its hands full with the dubious task of trying to revive economic growth and reduce debt simultaneously to avoid a recession, while trying to figure out how to keep the Greek economy alive and well. How it will happen has yet to be determined.
If you have any suggestions as to how to solve the European debt crisis, I suggest you buy a plane ticket, hop the pond, and put your two cents in.
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Fulcrum is a good word image for Greece. I just saw the head line that claimed they need another 20 Billion to avoid default and I have to admit that I’m starting to think of them as the Western version of North Korea. “Give us money and food or else.”