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Treasuries were down for the second straight day amid speculation the upcoming economic reports will show the U.S. economy grew enough to allow policy makers to start tapering this month.
Mortgage rates had an uneventful day Friday with trade levels remaining low heading into the three day weekend. Overnight, Treasuries fell again before reports on manufacturing and jobs this week will indicate global economic growth.
Mortgage rates opened higher yesterday, but a late day rally provided a much needed re-price for the better. The rally was caused by underlying market conditions.
All bonds were weak yesterday without much reason other than normal ebbs and flows in the market. The situation in Syria continues to degrade and economic data was weaker than expected, although it didn’t move the market.
Mortgage rates hit a two-week low yesterday with industry best execution around 4.5%. What caused this rally? It could be the market is correcting after hitting a multi-year high or the geopolitical risk out of Syria could be causing a flight to safety. Instability causes investors to seek safe investments like U.S. Treasuries and MBS. Pending Home Sales will be released this morning. However, for the first time in a long time, all eyes will be overseas.
Yesterday, the MBS Market got a boost from a weaker than expected Durable Goods Report. Trading levels continue to be weak as the summer holiday draws closer. If these trade levels continue, it won’t take much to cause a re-price.
This week we have a deluge of data and Fed speakers will be out in abundance. Combine that with a holiday weekend, next week’s Jobs Report, a number of Treasury Auctions and you have a perfect storm for increased volatility.
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The New Home Sales data could have some impact on the way MBS prices trade. The Federal Reserve is watching these data points very closely as they determine when to slow bond purchases.